Sat 1 Jul 2006
An excerpt from John Mauldin’s e-letter:“The market was already up 120 points when the Fed made its announcement and then roared ahead almost another 100 points. So it was not all Bernanke. In fact, I tend to think it was more likely end of the quarter gamesmanship, with funds working to move their favorite stocks up, moving into stocks that will look good in their portfolios and dumping the dogs. If XYZ stock is up 10% for the quarter, you want some of it in your portfolio to show investors you were on top of it. Of course, you don’t have to say you got to the game late.
End of the quarter rallies are common. Any old excuse will do. My bet is that whatever the Fed did would have produced a rally, short of stating that they had decided a recession was in order.”
Interesting stuff and good to keep in mind. I need to create a calendar with items like “End of quarter games might cause a rally–don’t read anything special into a suddent 100+ plus gain!” and other similar friendly reminders.
July 2nd, 2006 at 5:09 am
Triple / quadruple witching days are also quite quirky and can see a lot of volatility…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadruple_Witching_day
I’m reminded of a quote from Market Wizards that I’ll try and recreate in a separate post…
July 2nd, 2006 at 5:10 am
Option Expiration Behavior…
There is a good section in one of the Market Wizard books about option expiration and why there tends to be a lot of volatility. I will try to recreate the blurb here…
Imagine you have a very active option market and two speculators are on eithe…
July 2nd, 2006 at 5:12 am
By the way, while entering the post “Option Expiration Behavior” I entered the URL for this post in the “Trackback” section. That caused the magic of blogging to have the post show up as if it were a comment here.
It should work across blogs too — you can trackback to any blog system that supports it (and most of them do).
Neato.
July 2nd, 2006 at 12:39 pm
Woah. That’s like some sort of wierd space/time warp thing. I’m trying to fit my mind around the concept of trackbacks, getting a headache in the process.