Tue 4 Jul 2006
My daily routine is non-existant, mainly due to my investment choices thus far. As you both know my focus in on asset allocation coupled with dollar cost averaging within me and my SO retirement accounts. One account gets 2 installments per month, the another gets one installment per month, and our IRAs get one installment per year which I try to market time as much as possible within a range of 1-2 months in the year. My investment options are self limited at this point to index funds, since that allows me the ability to minimize expenses and go along with the research that shows that index funds out perform 80% or more of the actively managed funds. Since I cannot invest in many of the excellent actively managed funds anyway within my employer sponsored retirement accounts, I don’t bother looking too hard at the actively managed funds–not a good use of my time.
Here’s my asset allocation:
- 30.0% – US Large Cap
- 11.5% – US Mid Cap
- 21.0% – US Small Cap
- 2.7% – US Bond
- 1.7% – Corporate Bond
- 15.0% – International – General
- 8.0% – International – Emerging Market
- 7.5% – REIT
- 2.5% – Specialty Funds (Energy, Social, etc)
- 0.1% – Misc cash
Feel free to comment and challenge my allocation. I wanted our long-term investments to roughly fall into the 60% US stocks, 25% Foreign stocks, 10% REIT, 5% Bonds. It’s hard to maintain exact allocation numbers across 6 separate accounts (I have 3 and my SO has 3 and there isn’t a good way to consolidate them). I’m the least exciting investor in this group. I go for stodgy index funds, dollar cost average, and stick with maxing out tax-advantaged accounts.
So what daily routine would be appropriate for this investment approach? Nothing comes to mind, since the whole idea behind this approach is just to create a strategy and stick with it through thick and thin. I think the key for me is that I need to get some money into a taxable account that I can play with. Right now, though, our focus is on the very near term (<3yrs) and very long term (>30yrs), so thanks to you guys and all the great commentary this group is generating, I’m starting to get moving creating a plan for investing while in between the next 3 and 30 years.
I plan on setting aside a small amount to play with just to learn and have a hand in things. My goal is to set this money aside this month or next so I can have something to wade into the deep-end of the market with. I’ve been considering paying TrendMarkets $50 for one month’s worth of their Power Ratings just to see if they really can be useful for short term (maximum of 5 days) momentum trades. The link above takes you to the free version, but the $50 service will show you the “best of” moves for the day using the same Power Ratings. The idea is that stocks with 1 or 2 ratings are almost certain to go down sharply in the next 5 days and stocks with an 8 or higher rating are almost certain to go up sharply in the next 5 days.
I’ll gladly share all of my results, methodology and ideas with you both. I’m curious about whether these “power ratings” services can help sift out some gold nuggets or whether they are just another get-rich-quick-while-someone-else-thinks-for-me scam. My hope is that Power Ratings or an equivalent would help me identify either (1) a handful of stocks to investigate each day and then I could use my experience/skill to select the best play or (2) the best entry point into the market for a stock I’ve been following for a while. I’d like to try Power Ratings out for a few months and see if it yields decent results. I’m totally willing to invest $100 – $200 to see if this tool can help present some potentially good buys and some potentially good shorts. Power Ratings reports being able to do both. Once I subscribe to that, I’ll have plenty to contribute to the blog I’m sure! Please let me know what you both think about this idea and whether it’s bunk, full of hopes and dreams, or something similar to what you’ve considered/tried.
Regarding my research routine, I read John Mauldin for sure and try to stay on top of his 2 weekly mailings since they are so insightful and interesting. I look at my personal finances every day, although more out of general interest than a plan to actually do anything other than pay the bills and move as much money into money market as possible and leaving it there as long as possible. Other than that, it’s hit or miss random reading online. I haven’t found a good website with info I’m interested in looking at day after day, although the websites you both sent out look much more promising than what I’ve stumbled across.
July 4th, 2006 at 12:22 pm
A vital piece is missing from your above explanation of your asset allocation strategy… when do you rebalance? Every year? Every month? Every pay period? Do you use time based, target based, or discretionary re-balancing?
And as for PowerRatings… seems like that’s worthy of a different post compared to the rest of your commentary…
I’d probably steer clear of something like that at first, primarily because you say you’re looking to invest more in the 3 to 30 year time frame. Day/week trading does not fit that bill…
On the subject of PowerRatings… what is their success rate? How often are their picks wrong? If you don’t know this, you won’t know if their service works or if you just got unlucky with 3 or 5 or 7 losses (or more!) in a row. Most people abandon successful systems/services because they don’t realize that probability indicates they will likely have several losses in a row within any system.
They probably gear their marketing on the fact that when you recommend 25+ stocks, at least half of them will likely go up… How big (%) is their average winner compared to their average loser? How big will your trades be as a percentage of your trading account? The page I saw only listed the moves in $/share rather than % per share — the percentage is much more important. (I didn’t read very far, the information could be there somewhere… but I doubt it.)
Using PowerRatings is probably better than nothing (and they may actually be quite helpful), but you should be clear of your objectives before jumping on a very short term trading “service”. Week long, oversized positions can be *very* exciting, but I don’t think your goal is excitement.
July 4th, 2006 at 1:25 pm
Alright, I have it about to here with your self-deprication, buddy. 😉
There is nothing “wrong” or “unexciting” about taking the approach you are taking. I certainly hope we aren’t creating an environment that implies that you need to day trade to be cool.
Whether it’s daily or weekly or yearly, you still have a routine involved in all that you do otherwise those allocations would never work themselves out. I think it’s quite impressive to maintain such a steady ship. Thanks for sharing.
As to PowerRatings, I have to provide a general warning about signal services (note I do so as I’m considering starting my own). That world is full of flops. Jason provided some great tests to put any provider to before signing up. And if they don’t offer a free trial, run. As far as stock services go, there is one that has always stood out to me: http://www.daytraders.com. I’ve been receiving free weekly commentary from them for years, mainly since I haven’t ever cancelled them. They’ve been around since 1996 so you aren’t getting a post bubble performance record. They use a technique based on dollar-cost averaging and using stops that are larger than profit targets, which, as crazy as it sounds, is something I appreciate about them. They are rebels in a sea of conformity and blandness. Be careful reading too much into the performance record however because there signals aren’t exact. They tell you after the fact that they bought or sold something that day so you can’t always get the price they did. They also make discretionary decisions to hold certain stocks beyond the stop and you might not do so yourself. But in general, their staying power alone is worth noting.
July 4th, 2006 at 1:56 pm
I’ll put the PowerRatings stuff in a separate post since that does warrant unique commentary. But just to quickly respond: it does offer a free trial (1 week), free access to their system (in the link I provided) and Yahoo finance shows the power ratings on 7 stocks in the news each day. More on that in an upcoming post…
I’ll also put my thoughts on rebalancing into a separate post. Honestly, in the more than 5 years I’ve spent investing, dollar-cost-averaging and the relatively small size of my portfolio has precluded any rebalancing needs. I go in each year with a goal to rebalance and with the exception of my REIT position going from 8% up to over 12% of my portfolio in 2 years time (I drew it back down to 6% and it’s creeped up since), I haven’t had to rebalance. More on rebalancing in a subsequent post!
Finally, it’s nice to have a couple of posts that I can let marinate in my brain for a day or so before tossing up on the site. More soon!
July 4th, 2006 at 2:04 pm
I agree with Quicksilver’s comment… no need to self-deprecate here.
One of my goals is actually to find some “unexciting” way to make a sufficient return consistently. I will have to post on this topic at some point in the future too…
On an administrative point, feel free to start typing a post and just save it as a draft. That’s one of the nice features of WordPress. You can also use the trackback URL to have your post show up as a comment under a different post (see how “My Daily Dose” showed up as a comment under the original “Daily Dose” post as well as it’s own post).