Mon 31 Jul 2006
Here is one of the best breakdowns of our current situation that I’ve read.? It is very “Kessler” in style, linking seemingly separate areas of the?world in a tangled web.? I’m particularly struck by the mention of buybacks (time to dust off that research again) and the possible leading strength of multinationals who can gain profits from a weak dollar.? Hmmm.? How to get a list of those companies?
It seems that the picture both of his models paint is one of swift movements both down and back up in a relatively short period of time.? I see the scenario of both playing out in sequence as being perfectly plausible given the sense of spring-loading that I get from the markets now.? It’s getting tighter and tighter.? I wouldn’t be surprised if the net outcome for the next two years is breakeven for “buy and hold”-ers of equities.? But with some timing, there could be great inflection points for positioning a portfolio.