The Tasgall Group

Ray Johns has been publishing his model portfolio on Daytraders.com since 1997. For $39.95 per month, stock traders can follow along. His live performance record is reported on the site but what can be made from it? I decided to find out so I compiled them all into this Excel spreadsheet which assumes a $1000 investment in each trade call made since 1997. (more…)

I promised a quick lesson in the do-it-yourself Monte Carlo analysis so here goes.

First, some supplies:?

MCSim Excel Add-In: Just?drop this in Application Data\Microsoft\AddIns under your Documents and Settings directory.? Then, in Excel, Tools/Add-Ins… to install.

Resample Demo: A demo worksheet to show how to create a random sample from your raw data.

To begin (more…)

Ok, again I mention the Yen and the end of 0% but this time I’d like to talk about it in terms of the Uberman’s Portfolio.? First of all, I’m extremely excited that I get to “participate” in this event because what better way to test out the strength of the UP in its early days than a once-in-a-decade event of this magnitude?? And to make it more exciting (and valid), I’m the “wrong” way on Yen, being short nearly 4.1 million of the little suckers (that sounds like a lot but it’s only about $35,600 worth), in the face of what is supposed to be a bullish outcome.? Now, of course, no one knows what will really happen because life isn’t that easy but being short isn’t the safest place to be I guess.? So this should really put the UP through the ringer and we can see what it’s made of.

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Continuing my ongoing daily reports on the latest Power Ratings, with the top Power Ratings for 7/14 listed below along with a status report of how all the other PR stocks throughout the week have performed. Please note that today and yesterday were significant down days on the market so I’m not expecting the PR stocks to have performed all that well. (more…)

With the markets going down in price and up in volatility, I tend to ponder the nature of risk.? Here’s a quote from management guru Peter Druker:

Every decision is risky: It’s a commitment of present resources to an uncertain and unknown future. Risks can be minimized if you know when a decision is necessary, how to clearly define a problem and tackle it directly, and that you’ll have to make compromises in the end. You haven’t made a decision until you’ve found a way to implement it.

He was talking about business decisions, but I think it applies to investing or trading decisions quite well…

I think it brings the point home quickly — when we buy a stock or other financial instrument, we’re committing present resources (money, margin, time/our attention) to an unknown future in the hopes of accomplishing our goal (to make money on the trade/investment).

Do you know how to define your problem?? How you’ll implement your decisions?? I know I need to do some work in that area…

Apparently ProShares is now offering inverse and double-inverse ETFs.? That means you can short an index with leverage by buying an ETF.? Ideal for retirement accounts where you can’t short very easily and don’t want to be tied down to the end-of-day trading of ProFunds’s inverse mutual funds.

Read more about it from The Big Picture’s post on the topic.

Gee golly gosh, 9 hours away from a possible rate hike by the BoJ and the stock market takes a bigger dive than an Italian soccer team at a water park.? “But oil hit a new all time high!”? Sure.? “But Israel!”? Ok, I’ll give you that.? But I just can’t get it out of the back my mind that maybe, just maybe, some Yen-tottin’ equity-holdin’ types decided to squeeze every last second out of that free money?that they could and then cashed out.? Sure, the rate hike has been broadcast in the media but why would you not wait until you had to sell?? Though I’m sure the perfect storm today wasn’t the ideal gauntlet to run on the way out.? But I have to wonder what’s the big deal about 0.25% anyway (though I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 2.00% in a year or so)?? It’s still the cheapest money around.? Oh wait, this is the same world that will drop a stock like Materazzi if it?”just”?meets?earning expectations.? Fear, thy name is…well, it’s?Fear but you get the point.

Here’s the new batch of PowerRatings setups for Thursday, 7/13 plus an analysis of how the stocks with PRs from Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday are stacking up thus far… (more…)

Check out the latest CD rates at ING Direct… I copied a few of the rates here:

• 6 mo – 5%
• 12 mo – 5.25%
• 24 mo – 5.30%
• 26 mo – 5.25%
• 60 mo – 5.25%

So, if you’re shopping for CDs, ING will pay you more to hold your money for 24 months than to hold it for an even longer term. In economic parlance, that’s an inverted yield curve. (You can see a similar inverted curve at VirtualBank where the big winner is the 6 month CD at a 5.55% APY.)

Nevermind that the real bond market is also inverted right now. We can discuss the implications of that in a different post…

There can be (or should be) a distinction between “setup” for a trade, and the “entry” signal for a trade. For example, with our PowerRatings, having a high rating might not be the only criteria for entry… instead, you may want to consider a high rating a “setup”, and then wait for a entry signal (e.g., the price moving in your favor) before plunging into a position.

This could be accomplished several ways, and should be tested before using (after all, maybe this extra step causes you to lose money). One way would be to watch the shares at open, and only go long if they’ve already started an upside move. Another way would be to place a stop buy order just above the close of the prior day — if the price goes down, your stop buy never gets filled;if it goes up, you get filled, though you may face more slippage with a stop order. (more…)