So, the yield curve inverted back at the beginning of August 2006… a full 8 months ago. As we talked about a few times, the typical response to an inverted yield curve is a recession in 6 to 12 months…

Well folks, we’re smack dab in the middle of that timeframe now… and several of the yield spreads worth watching are closing in on the zero line.? Some would say the uptrend in the yield curve is the real harbinger of ill fates, rather than the inversion itself.

Anyone want to take a bet on whether or not we’re heading into a recession?