The Tasgall Group

Here is one of the best breakdowns of our current situation that I’ve read.? It is very “Kessler” in style, linking seemingly separate areas of the?world in a tangled web.? I’m particularly struck by the mention of buybacks (time to dust off that research again) and the possible leading strength of multinationals who can gain profits from a weak dollar.? Hmmm.? How to get a list of those companies?

It seems that the picture both of his models paint is one of swift movements both down and back up in a relatively short period of time.? I see the scenario of both playing out in sequence as being perfectly plausible given the sense of spring-loading that I get from the markets now.? It’s getting tighter and tighter.? I wouldn’t be surprised if the net outcome for the next two years is breakeven for “buy and hold”-ers of equities.? But with some timing, there could be great inflection points for positioning a portfolio.

Entertaining?article from the editor of Maxim about becoming rich.??

Most memorable quote from the article:

If it flies, floats or fornicates, always rent it ? it?s cheaper in the long run.

I wonder if that applies to the billionaire heiresses?? Surely they do a lot of…flying.? Also, 1-2 million?GBP is considered “the comfortable poor” on his scale of wealth.? Ah, perspective.

Given the bond flavor of our recent posts, I thought it might be interesting to talk about the bonds of other countries.? The US isn’t the only stable, developed nation offering bonds but I think we tend to forget (surely it’s not patriotism) that.? In particular, check out?this post about the potential for UK bonds or being long the Pound in general.? If the macroeconomics of a government are part of why you do or do not buy a bond, then why not look for better macroeconomics for your money?? I can understand that it requires more research to learn about someplace so far away but it might be well worth it.? I need to look into the correlations however with the US bond market because you should never underestimate the power of the US influence on the globe.

More on the yield curve…

With all the talk around about “If stock are down, go bonds”, I suggest that a savy investor might want to first calculate the probability of stagflation occuring (rising inflation combined with economic slowdown like in the ’70s).? If we hit something like that, the both stocks and bonds go down.? I’d appreciate any input into this concept as I could be missing something but I don’t want to see any body jumping out of the pan into the fire without considering the possibility.

Not to be confused with the 1957 film of a similar name, this post describes some of the analysis I’ve done?on the cash S&P 500 which I’ve been ignoring for no good reason other than it’s fun to say “Dow”.? Dow.? Dow Dow Dow.? HEHEHEHE.? But you might find the plot of that movie to be right on target.

Anyway, it became clear in a density analysis that the S&P 500 has really had 3 “real” prices or values since the recent 2003+ bull market started.? These prices are, approximately and in order of occurance, 1125, 1189 and 1261.? (more…)

I named this post because of the Peter Principle, which essentially states what the link says it states.? I was reminded of the mention in Running Money of the fund managers who, when they reached a goal for rate of return,?took windfall profits and sat on them so as not to miss their targets for the month.? So my question is, should an investor call it quits during a given timeframe if they hit a good run and, if so, when and for how long? (more…)

It’s hard to be bearish with this kind of information hitting the wire.? If the market really is a minority game, then forget a bear market for now.? Looks like today’s action would agree.? But then again, bear markets?have the biggest up days.? I’m curious to know now what other sentiment indicators are saying.? One?lemon does not a fruit bowl make.? Also note that as of my writing this, the Dow futures haven’t exceeded the infamous 11087 level from my density chart.? This means that there isn’t yet a change in value to the upside but mearly a retreat TO value, for whatever that is worth.? This pretty much leads one to the conclusion that nothing that has happened in the past month has been anything other than pure volatility with value never really changing from 11087 or so.? So where are all the voices crying for “Neither” in the bullish/bearish debate?? Perhaps volatility should be redefined to mean?”a period of?strong opinions, weakly held”.? Until August rolls around, the best investment advice might just be sell above 11087 and buy below it, ‘cuz we ain’t movin’, Jack.? Or perhaps you could make an option play.? There is probably no better spot that these high value areas for initiating a market-neutral?option position since they are?essentially?epicenters?of activity.? But before you do anything rash, please read my disclaimer.

Oh, Vic, Vic, Vic…Damn, Son!? What the…!?? What are we gonna do with you?? The sawnbitch gone an done it agin.? Goes to show you can talk a good talk and have lots of great things to teach but that won’t necessarily translate into a good game.? Take what you can that’s valuable, make it your own and walk…no…run away.

I’ve always thought that?animation was sorely underutilized as an investment tool.