The Tasgall Group

Well let’s break it down:

What War Means For Your Wealth

Ray Johns has been publishing his model portfolio on Daytraders.com since 1997. For $39.95 per month, stock traders can follow along. His live performance record is reported on the site but what can be made from it? I decided to find out so I compiled them all into this Excel spreadsheet which assumes a $1000 investment in each trade call made since 1997. (more…)

I promised a quick lesson in the do-it-yourself Monte Carlo analysis so here goes.

First, some supplies:?

MCSim Excel Add-In: Just?drop this in Application Data\Microsoft\AddIns under your Documents and Settings directory.? Then, in Excel, Tools/Add-Ins… to install.

Resample Demo: A demo worksheet to show how to create a random sample from your raw data.

To begin (more…)

Ok, again I mention the Yen and the end of 0% but this time I’d like to talk about it in terms of the Uberman’s Portfolio.? First of all, I’m extremely excited that I get to “participate” in this event because what better way to test out the strength of the UP in its early days than a once-in-a-decade event of this magnitude?? And to make it more exciting (and valid), I’m the “wrong” way on Yen, being short nearly 4.1 million of the little suckers (that sounds like a lot but it’s only about $35,600 worth), in the face of what is supposed to be a bullish outcome.? Now, of course, no one knows what will really happen because life isn’t that easy but being short isn’t the safest place to be I guess.? So this should really put the UP through the ringer and we can see what it’s made of.

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Gee golly gosh, 9 hours away from a possible rate hike by the BoJ and the stock market takes a bigger dive than an Italian soccer team at a water park.? “But oil hit a new all time high!”? Sure.? “But Israel!”? Ok, I’ll give you that.? But I just can’t get it out of the back my mind that maybe, just maybe, some Yen-tottin’ equity-holdin’ types decided to squeeze every last second out of that free money?that they could and then cashed out.? Sure, the rate hike has been broadcast in the media but why would you not wait until you had to sell?? Though I’m sure the perfect storm today wasn’t the ideal gauntlet to run on the way out.? But I have to wonder what’s the big deal about 0.25% anyway (though I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 2.00% in a year or so)?? It’s still the cheapest money around.? Oh wait, this is the same world that will drop a stock like Materazzi if it?”just”?meets?earning expectations.? Fear, thy name is…well, it’s?Fear but you get the point.

Well, Friday saw the release of the real PCE, my favorite of macroeconomic indicators and the one I feel leads all others down the road.? After revisions, the drop from the last release was pretty intense, from around 4% y/y to only 2% y/y.? This is like a bomb siren.? Rather than buying a new set of Gucci loafers, the consumer may be buying cement shoes for corporate profits.? I expect that the next set of quarterly numbers could begin to paint the next few months red in the equity markets.? And given the recent rally in stocks, the old adage of sell high comes to mind.

Think about all the interconnections that go into this.? Oil/gas demand could finally fall leading to lower prices in a commodity that isn’t in low supply to begin with.? Corporate profits will decline with less spending.? All of this would call for lower interest rates which means a lower dollar.? But the Fed might have a hard time lowering rates now without causing a crises due to the amount of government debt owned by foreign entities (lower rates makes our debt less attractive).? I wonder if Ben likes his new job.

You can draw connections all day long and get pretty tangled up.? The key is to find good value in all of this and exploit it, especially after any declines in asset prices in your favored vehicle.

I’m curious about what each Tasgall member does each day to keep a finger on the pulse of the world and the markets in particular.? For example, do you have a morning routine of blog reading or news watching?? What charts?and such do you check on a regular basis, if at all?? How often to you deal with your investments and in what manner?

My routine is constantly changing and growing, primarily because I’m constantly finding new sources of information from other people.? But this is what it typically involves:

• A quick check of updated Bloglines feeds focused mainly on sites like Minyanville, Economist’s View, Big Picture, etc. and, of course, Tasgall.
• Write something on Tasgall blog.
• Log into Barchart.com ($) and check the latest futures charts for a general picture of commodities.
• Pull up my FX accounts to see how things are looking.
• Spend some time checking my personal finances to make sure everything is on track.
• On weekends, rebalance my Uberman’s Portfolio (new).
• Also on weekends, spend some hours throwing around new ideas and testing them.
• In general, try to find?convergence between what I’m seeing and reading and hearing.

All in all, nothing too fancy or regimented, but it’s what I find myself doing day-to-day.? I’d like to peek into other people’s routines to see if I can adopt some good habits.

I absolutely enjoyed this and will be posting these somewhere to be in view at all times and will recite them daily:

Defining Features of Market Pros

Hopefully, The Tasgall Group is a perfect way to fulfill #5.

I just wanted to point out a couple of links I’ve added to our blogroll. The first is Minyanville, an unique online “town” of market-obsessed characters with a nack for out-of-the-box thinking. Their daily “Five Things You Need To Know (to stay ahead of the pack on Wall Street)” and “Random Thoughts” are priceless and wonderfully irreverant. Once you catch on to their style of dry, often subtle humor, you’ll feel right at home. The second is Economist’s View, a constant flow of articles and commentary on all things that might interest the economist in you, especially if you are Keynesian in your leaning. It’s a great place to read editorials from major papers that are normally subscription-only.

Also, I should mention that I’ve recently become a user of Bloglines. I was looking for a good RSS feed reader when I learned that this web-based service seems to be more favored that most download-and-install types. Given that I have a preference for all things web-based (see Meebo) because they are always “with me”, this fit the bill perfectly. I’ve already added Tasgall to my subscriptions.

It’s time.? A project that I’ve been working on extensively for weeks, probably to the great annoyance of the lady of the house, is finally at a point where I’m ready to share my work and begin testing the idea in a semi-public forum.? The working title for this project is the Uberman’s Portfolio, inspired by the infamous Uberman’s Sleep Schedule in that it never sleeps and because of the many late nights spent building the?gears and levers that make it all?possible.? Also, the acronym is UP, which is where I hope my equity will be when all is said and done.

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