The Tasgall Group

It’s times like these that I’m reminded of that chapter in Practical Speculation about the market “Mad Lib” where you could mimick the media’s attempts to explain market movement by plugging in random investment terms into a stock article.

Today the stock market moved higher/lower on news of higher/lower inflation/confidence/oil.? This is certainly bullish/bearish for stocks/bonds.

Mr. Pundit,?in case you haven’t noticed, the stock market is asleep/on vacation in Mexico?and is merely twitching from a bad/good dream/enchilada dinner.? You choose.? This is a Mad Lib after all. (more…)

I thought I’d throw another log on the bondfire.? Get it?? Bondfire.? You know like bonfire.? Except it’s bond.? Man, I kill me.? I could pun on the word “bond” all day long.

Anyway, I’m the last person on earth that is really qualified to talk about bond trading or investing so I’m not trying to make any commentary about what should be done in that market.? I have zero real opinion one way or another personally.? But I only thought this article painted an interesting picture.? I’m not sure what timeframe is really involved here but it’s worth factoring in to any analysis.

Remember the wise words of Wu-Tang Financial…

FYI, both Fidelity and Vanguard posted 401K contributions yesterday.? Notice that it was a solid up day for nearly all markets.? What’s interesting is how both companies invested me and my significant other’s holdings on the same day, although typically my significant other is invested a couple days earlier, and my 401K is invested a few days later than this time of the month.? If I think of it, I’ll continue to report when there are significant 401K contribution events.? Food for thought that it’s not just oil going up or down that makes the markets move–I think overall cash flow is far more important!

While thinking of underappreciated investment analysis techniques, I just thought of one that I freely admit to skipping: before making a decision about where to invest, write yourself a draft e-mail about why this stock/fund/etc is worth buying now. Jot down some bullet points about why, from the current perspective, the stock looks promising. On a weekly or monthly basis, review this e-mail to yourself and see if the situation has changed significantly and adjust your position accordingly. (more…)

If you want to experience a really good time, browse this Yahoo! Message Board for CSCO from March 27th, 2000.? On this day, CSCO peaked and never looked back.? Browse through with the arrow buttons and read how violently they responded to negative posters and how cocky they all were. I never realized that these old boards could still be read.? Imagine all of the gems of the past that you could explore.

For this week’s discussion, I bring you two long term charts… (more…)

I’m sure we’ll all be watching the market closely to see how it responds to the “W” formation that Mauldin pointed out as a significant technical indicator of the overall market trend in the near-term.? We’re at the tail end peak of the “W” and thus at a tipping point, according to this technical analysis.? I’m wondering if the increased emphasis of 401K and retirement investments over the last 5 years isn’t creating a larger and more consistent influx of cash into the market that has historically been privy to, thus creating an environment where the market has a tendancy to drift slowly and steadily upward.? I was trying to interpret the Fed Z.1 cash-flow data this weekend with little initial success.? The data is clearly laid out and readable, but there’s just so much of it and so much out of context to something actionable and tradable that it was difficult to get my head around how to use this information to profit from it.? The general increase in consumer debt is worrisome, but less so if the typical consumer isn’t likely to invest in the market anyway, but who’s company is automatically investing for them and their debt is used to buy products and services that are driving the economy further into the black (double benefit).? This may just be the ramblings of a non-economist, but I have to think that positive cash flow into the markets will create a general rise in equity prices.

The new Pension Reform Act, known on the street as the 401K law, will obviously cause major downward pressures on manufacturing and airline stocks which will need to divert signifiant resources into their pensions over the next 7 years or more to meet the new requirements. The law will also be a major lift to firms like Fidelity and Vanguard who offer 401K services (however both companies are privately held, so there’s no equity investment opportunity to be had there). The real question is: will the rise in 401K contributions be a major contributor to a future stock market rally? (more…)

Ok, so the definition of maudlin is “drunk enough to be emotionally silly”.? Not sure that really applies to John Mauldin but I couldn’t pass up the obvious similarity between the word and his name.? I’m a sucker for puns.? But my general purpose is served to use some sort of adjective with a negative spin.? Do I have negative thoughts about John Mauldin?? The jury is out.? But I wanted to talk about some interesting data collected about his newsletter that does little to shine a positive light on the man’s market opinions.? (more…)

On the LTCM disaster:

I don’t yet know the balance between whether this was a random event or whether this was negligence on theirs and their creditors’ parts. If a random bolt of lightning hits you when you’re standing in the middle of the field, that feels like a random event. But if your business is to stand in random fields during lightning storms, then you should anticipate, perhaps a little more robustly, the risks you’re taking on.

– Michael Covel (quoting someone else)