The Tasgall Group

I just noticed that Caribou Coffee (CBOU) is a public company.? It’s actually tiny compared to the behemout Starbucks (SBUX)…? The market cap for CBOU is under $120m right now (compared to $25 billion for SBUX), and it’s foundering at the lowest price since its IPO 10 months ago.? The fundamentals aren’t strong enough to get me to bite, and the chart pattern does nothing to bolster confidence…? but I’ll drink their coffee any day.? There’s a difference between a good product and a good investment (see TiVo or NetFlix for similar products I recommend but would find difficult to invest in — ouch, Netflix is down 20% today).

It’s hard to be bearish with this kind of information hitting the wire.? If the market really is a minority game, then forget a bear market for now.? Looks like today’s action would agree.? But then again, bear markets?have the biggest up days.? I’m curious to know now what other sentiment indicators are saying.? One?lemon does not a fruit bowl make.? Also note that as of my writing this, the Dow futures haven’t exceeded the infamous 11087 level from my density chart.? This means that there isn’t yet a change in value to the upside but mearly a retreat TO value, for whatever that is worth.? This pretty much leads one to the conclusion that nothing that has happened in the past month has been anything other than pure volatility with value never really changing from 11087 or so.? So where are all the voices crying for “Neither” in the bullish/bearish debate?? Perhaps volatility should be redefined to mean?”a period of?strong opinions, weakly held”.? Until August rolls around, the best investment advice might just be sell above 11087 and buy below it, ‘cuz we ain’t movin’, Jack.? Or perhaps you could make an option play.? There is probably no better spot that these high value areas for initiating a market-neutral?option position since they are?essentially?epicenters?of activity.? But before you do anything rash, please read my disclaimer.

Oh, Vic, Vic, Vic…Damn, Son!? What the…!?? What are we gonna do with you?? The sawnbitch gone an done it agin.? Goes to show you can talk a good talk and have lots of great things to teach but that won’t necessarily translate into a good game.? Take what you can that’s valuable, make it your own and walk…no…run away.

I have never made money in the markets.? If you follow my advice, that is akin to strapping on a a piece of fishing line to your ankles and trying to bungee jump off a 1,000 foot bridge…..? (more…)

Just read this great quote from Inside the House of Money (p. 205):

We are playing a variant of the Greater Fool theory which should be called the Slower Fool theory. According to the Greater Fool Theory, investors buy things [at inflated prices] on the hope that they can find a greater fool to sell to.

Following the Slower Fool Theory, …my plan …is to be faster than the other fools holding [similar positions] and liquidate before the oncoming Armageddon devastates them… To the extent that everyone believes the crisis is sometime in the future and somebody else’s crisis, the game is viable. (more…)

As soon as I saw the chart in Jason’s post, I could tell there was a profile story there. I’m getting better at “seeing” the profile in a barchart. Here is the 90-minute profile for copper futures:

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The old cliche is that Copper is the only metal with a PhD.? “Copper earned its useful nickname “Dr. Copper” over the years due to its ability to forecast the state of the economy and particularly the ebb and flow of the equity markets.”? (From the first hit I found on Google.)

Today it looks like it’s telling us something a bit worrysome… (more…)

In case anyone caught last night’s Daily Show, Samantha Bee interviewed a guy named Kevin Kerr in her segment called Hurri-Cash. She mocked Kerr (a commodities trader) and a guy who runs a gambling website for profiting and being excited when hurricanes hit and cause devistation.

To be honest, the piece didn’t mock Kerr as much as the situation in general. The funny thing is, I’ve read Kerr’s work in the past and he is (as portrayed) very market oriented… You can read The Daily Reckoning or Investment U, both of which he sporadically contributes to. (more…)

The Bernanke rally yesterday seems to have given REITs a bit of a push (today they gave back a little). They’re now within spitting distance of the highs set back in March. Breaking above the recent high would be a bullish technical indicator, and there are potential fundamental influences at work as well (inflation, rising rents, etc.).

For reference, I look at the Dow Jones REIT Index (DJR), the Real Estate iShares (IYR), and the ING Clarion Global Real Estate Income Fund (IGR) to monitor the REITs broadly. The first two are basically broad indexes, where IGR is a closed-end fund and currently trades at an 8% discount to NAV.

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A lot of people think that Japan has finally waken up from its long cold night, and has started a genuine long-term bull run.? With its currency still weak, the import business should continue to do well, and their central bank has a long way to go before interest rates become constrictive.

Right now the Nikkei is in a correction, which means it should be time to buy.? It’s testing the low of June, and if I’m wrong we’ll know very quickly (it will continue to go below the June low).? Now might be a good time to start buying some Japan weighted funds, I prefer EWJ or JOF. EWJ is an ETF that tracks the Nikkei 225.? JOF is a closed-end fund that focuses on Japanese small caps.? While it has typically traded at a premium to NAV, JOF is now at almost no premium (the NAV reporting is delayed, so it’s hard to know exactly).