Mon 18 Sep 2006
I add a link to the blogroll for Bill Cara’s site.? I think you will find it an interesting addition to the “static”.? He has a uniquely insider view of things and often links you to the reports coming out of big financial institutions (the big money) that only clients normally see.? He also does an extensive weekly review of sectors and interesting stocks.
Mon 18 Sep 2006
Sat 16 Sep 2006
You can see the last 20 years of the Nikkei on Yahoo.com.
I also found this chart in Financial Reckoning Day, where the authors try to draw parallels between the Japanese situation 15 years ago with the one in the US now (or was in 2003 when the book was written). (more…)
Sat 16 Sep 2006
It was the best of times and the worst of times as commodities fell of the charts (almost literally).? Why is this troubling because I certainly don’t dread filling my tank us nearly as much lately?? Because such a rapid decrease in commodities prices could spell rapid deflation.? I know that is hard to swallow with so much concern recently on the inflation front.? But when assets decrease in value, the money supply shrinks, which is deflationary. (more…)
Thu 14 Sep 2006
Well, today certainly looks to have been an interesting day in the commodities markets. In terms of the markets I watch, here are the big moves today:
What’s going on? Has the economy melted down in the last 24 hours? Did a recession just hit us around noon today? Obviously no… but the market consensus on these appears to be shifting, and with it the support for the energy futures. Gold and silver is a different story, but one that requires a separate post…
While these commodities are all impressively down today, the one thing that was down today that had me the most shocked was… (more…)
Thu 14 Sep 2006
I have to wonder whether the markets will continue to power ahead in the months ahead, or if instead that the steam is actually from a steamroller and we’re trying to pick up nickels (small profits) as it is barreling down.
[Note: the phrase “picking up nickels in front of a steamroller” is typically used to describe fixed income arbitrage, but I think it creates a nice metaphor in my current discussion.]
Let’s start with a little check in on history… (more…)
Wed 13 Sep 2006
Today’s move in stocks is pretty bullish in terms of density theory.? A quick whip from one side of the bell curve to the other or a fast rejection of the last major value level, all followd by a breakout seems to be something you see ahead of major moves to new levels.? This certainly lends support to the more bullish signals given in models like those at CXO Advisory.? There isn’t any major stopping point to the north other than the year’s high so a retest is looking mighty likely.? Stay tuned…
Mon 11 Sep 2006
I was watching TV today and, boy,?is my thumb tired.? Seriously, folks, I’m here all week.? And so is James Dicks according to this infomercial I just came across.? Who is James Dicks?? In a word: the devil (if you say anything about how that’s 2 words, I’ll be forced to get really, really mean).? And by devil I mean a con artist who gives currency trading a bad name. (more…)
Mon 11 Sep 2006
No, not the natty light, but rather natural gas is under $5.50 this morning in trading… that hasn’t happend in over a year and a half.
The trend is a trend until it ends (and the trend is down), but I like the value in buying natural gas this cheaply. According to the conventional wisdom, natural gas tends to bottom in September before the winter heating season starts… it might be worth keeping an eye on the price of natural gas to watch for a breakout to the upside…
Sat 9 Sep 2006
The subject of stop-losses is such an intensely difficult topic to discuss.? I’ve had many latenight debates in trading forums and chatrooms and I’ve been through every camp in my experience as a trader.? The best answer I’ve ever been able to come up with is that answer famous and frustrating for its truth: it depends. (more…)